Storm Chances Tomorrow (posted 4/21/2020)

Good evening North Texas, this is a quick post on what could happen tomorrow storm wise.

To start, the SPC has placed a large area of NTX, for areas along and east of I-35, in an enhanced (3/5 orange) Enhanced Risk for storms. With areas west in either a (2/5 yellow) Slight Risk, or (1/5 green) Marginal risk. Remember, these risks are not issued on just storm intensity, but mostly on where anticipated storm coverage confidence is better.

Among the threats tomorrow in the SPC outlook, we have a “significant” outlined area for a tornado, and very large hail threat. These “significant” black outlined areas simply mean, some intense activity is possible. The SPC has stated a few “strong tornadoes” will be possible with some storm development.

So. This is the threats for storm activity during the afternoon. BUT. This will all be up to whether or not we see good rain coverage in the morning hours. No rain, we could see some significant severe weather. Not enough rain to destabilize the atmosphere we could see severe weather. Widespread rain, and we will see no severe weather in the afternoon. So there’s a big IF on whether or not this plays out in one way or another. So stay weather alert and stay tuned during the morning for the latest.

The timing for storms in the morning would be from 9am to 12pm IF we see storms in the morning. If not, we would see storms fire up in the mid afternoon hours between 3-8pm.

IF we don’t get storms in the morning, our primary concern would be for discrete supercell development across the metro area. These discrete supercells would be capable of all modes of severe weather, with possibly some that could produce some large hail, and tornadoes.

To lower fears, not everyone will see or be impacted by this severe weather, and keep in mind, there’s still a big IF, on if we will see this activity, depending on if we get rain coverage in the morning. But if we don’t see this rain activity, we will all have a fair shot at seeing severe weather and need to stay weather aware. But not everyone will b impacted by severe storms.