New low 10% risk for development in the northern Gulf of Mexico (5/22/2022)

We officially have our first outlook for tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico for the 2022 season, however, this outlook is a very low 10% chance for development within the next 2-5 days. A low pressure system off gulf coastal areas from Alabama and Florida panhandle, is producing disorganized storm development. As this system moves inland over the next 48-72 hours, the system will weaken and not reach cyclone status or strength. However, this system could bring heavy rain and a flash flooding concern for parts of the gulf coast, and southeastern US over the next 1-2 days. Bellow is the official outlook from the National Hurricane Center.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun May 22 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. North Central Gulf of Mexico:
An area of low pressure is located over the north-central Gulf of 
Mexico about 150 miles south of Pensacola, Florida.  This system is 
producing disorganized thunderstorms and gusty winds across portions 
of the Florida Panhandle, southern Alabama, and over the central and 
northern Gulf of Mexico. Surface pressures remain high, and strong 
upper-level winds should prevent significant development before this 
system moves inland over the central Gulf Coast later tonight or on 
Monday. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds 
are expected to continue across portions of the central Gulf Coast 
and will spread across the southeast U.S. during the next day or so. 
Additional information on the rainfall and flooding potential can be 
found in products issued by your local National Weather Service 
Forecast Office and Excessive Rainfall Outlooks issued by the 
Weather Prediction Center. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi

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